Item - 2025.TTC4.3

The Toronto Transit Commission received the Benefits of Transit Investment Phase 2 Project Final Report to TTC for information.

David Metcalfe, Head, Business Management & Performance and Eric J. Miller, Ph.D., University of Toronto, gave a presentation on the The Benefits of Transit Investment Phase 2 Final Report.

Public transit is the backbone of any major metropolitan economy, serving as the vital link that connects residents to employment, education, healthcare, and commerce. In a city as large and economically dynamic as Toronto, the TTC plays a central role in enabling economic growth, reducing congestion, and promoting environmental sustainability.

The Economic Benefits of Transit, Phase 2 Project Final Report to the Toronto Transit Commission, provides a comprehensive and data-driven assessment of the far-reaching economic, social, and environmental benefits of TTC investment. Conducted by transportation and economic experts from the University of Toronto, the study applies a rigorous dual-modelling approach to quantify both the direct and indirect impacts of transit funding decisions.

The analysis consists of two main components:

1. Macroeconomic Model: This measures the broader economic effects of TTC investment, including its contribution to GDP, job creation, and industrial output at both the provincial and national levels.
2. Microsimulation Modelling: This detailed, agent-based transportation analysis evaluates the real-world effects of transit investments on travel behaviour, congestion, environmental outcomes, and accessibility.

At the heart of the study is an examination of how different levels of TTC service and infrastructure investment affect Toronto’s economic competitiveness and mobility. The report evaluates four distinct service scenarios:

1. Base Case (2023 Service Levels): Reflects post-pandemic constraints when service hours were at 91% of pre-pandemic levels.
2. 2019 Full-Service Scenario: Represents pre-pandemic service levels.
3. Line 2 Subway Shutdown Scenario: Illustrates the impacts of severe disinvestment.
4. 2024 Service Plan: Accounts for operational changes.

Additionally, multiple operating and capital investment scenarios are analyzed to determine the economic and employment benefits of sustained infrastructure spending.

The findings of this study reinforce the idea that transit investment is not merely a public expenditure, but a high-return economic strategy. With benefit-cost ratios averaging seven-to-one, the report demonstrates that every $1 invested in TTC services and infrastructure generates approximately $7 in economic and social benefits. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the consequences of disinvestment, revealing that failing to maintain service levels or deferring critical capital projects could lead to a substantial loss of economic output, increased congestion, higher transportation costs for households, and diminished environmental and health outcomes.

As the TTC Board considers future investment strategies in the face of fiscal constraints, this report underscores the fact that public transit is not a discretionary service, but an economic necessity. Sustained investment in TTC operations and infrastructure is crucial to Toronto’s long-term prosperity. The results of this study should serve as a foundation for discussions on funding priorities, ensuring that the TTC continues to fulfill its role as a key driver of economic growth, mobility, and sustainability in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Region.