Item - 2025.PH26.7

The Planning and Housing Committee:

1. Requested the General Manager, Transportation Services, in collaboration with the Toronto Transit Commission, to identify opportunities to include streetcar stop improvements in any upcoming state-of-good-repair work on Lake Shore Boulevard West.

2. Requested the Chief Planner and Executive Director, City Planning, to continue to assess opportunities to respond to growth with transportation improvements through the coordination of development applications and future capital projects.

3. Requested the Chief Planner and Executive Director, City Planning, to incorporate results of the population, development, employment and mobility analysis from the report (November 17, 2025) from the Chief Planner and Executive Director, City Planning into the Official Plan Map 4 Higher Order Transit Corridors review (EX12.5 - Prioritization of Planned Higher-Order Transit Project), including a focus on addressing existing and emerging growth in Ward 3 - Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

Development pressures in parts of south Etobicoke require consideration of improvements to the transit and transportation systems in the area.  Planning and Housing Committee directed the Chief Planner and Executive Director, City Planning, to work with the General Manager, Transportation Services, the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC), other divisions as appropriate, and the Ward Councillor to assess these recent growth and emerging development pressures to identify options for advancing improvements to the road and transit networks in these areas to ensure there is cohesion across multiple initiatives.

This report responds to this direction. It summarizes the analysis for three focus areas in south Etobicoke: The Queensway, Humber Bay Shores and Lake Shore Boulevard West. This report:

- Examines census data and the City's development pipeline data to understand both the historical growth trends and estimated emerging growth pressures in the three focus areas.

- Examines mobility trends including transit ridership, auto-based travel, walking and cycling, as well as trip origin and destination to understand where and how people from these focus areas move.

- Summarizes current and planned planning initiatives and transportation improvements in South Etobicoke.

- Recommends actions to further improve transportation options in the context of continued population growth and development.

Analysis of the Transportation Tomorrow Survey (2022) confirms that the majority of trips from the focus areas remain in Etobicoke-York and also within Ward 3 - Etobicoke-Lakeshore. The majority of trips are by auto; auto use is higher than the City average for all three focus areas, and almost 25% higher in The Queensway than the City. Transit use in the Lake Shore Boulevard West focus area is at a similar rate to the City, while the rates in the Queensway and Humber Bay Shores are lower than the City rate with Queensway transit use significantly lower.

Among the three focus areas, the Humber Bay Shores focus area has experienced the greatest level of population growth from 4,365 in 2011 to 14,440 people in 2021 (Statistics Canada) and has a higher growth rate than the City of Toronto. Over this same period, the Lake Shore focus area population experienced growth at a rate similar to the City as a whole (from 36,120 to 39,895 people). The Queensway focus area rate of growth was slightly above the City of Toronto growth rate (from 8,615 to 10,440 people).

Population growth estimates suggest that the three focus areas will continue to experience growth at varying rates. The Humber Bay Shores focus area is estimated to experience significant growth, predominantly resulting from the large future development at the former Christie site. The Lake Shore Boulevard West focus area will continue to experience a steady rate of growth similar to the City and is also estimated to have an increase of 26% from the estimated 2025 population of 40,595 from current active an under-review development. The Queensway is estimated to have a significant increase of 282% from the estimated 2025 population of 12,600 resulting from current active and under review development applications and could in the future outpace the growth in Humber Bay Shores of 141% from the estimated 2025 population of 15,610.  

The population is expected to continue to grow for the foreseeable future in all three focus areas, which will result in more trips and the need for continuous improvements and enhanced mobility options. This expected growth will create added pressure on the transportation system. Coming out of this analysis, City staff will respond to areas of growth and change and advance transportation system improvements through City-led capital projects and, through development approvals. City staff will work with the Toronto Transit Commission to identify areas of development pressure that may require service improvements to Toronto Transit Commission bus and streetcar routes. This analysis will also augment the work being undertaken in the review of the higher order transit priorities map in the Official Plan.